Financial model / 24 months
Economics needs
no magic.
Price, value, retention and delivery costs. Change the assumptions to see what a sustainable business requires.
A planning model in USD. Not actual financial statements or a promise of returns. Profit is before taxes, financing, depreciation and amortization. The calculation starts with 0 customers.
A path to profit at $25/month.
Target: operating profit in month 3, cumulative payback in month 6. Peak funding need: $14,605.
Growth target at $25/month: 220 new paying customers per month, 3% monthly churn, $12 CAC, $3 AI, $1 infrastructure and $1 support per average paying customer; fixed costs $6,000/month. This requires validated low-cost acquisition channels, retention and measured delivery costs. These are targets, not achieved results or a return guarantee.
Explore the growth targetSingle-price sensitivity
Set one price for everyone: Standard becomes $25 or $50 and the Extended share becomes 0%. Other cost and growth assumptions stay unchanged. Use the fields below for a real tariff mix.
Base scenario · all amounts in USD
What the mix and growth produce
0% Extended at $50; 100% Standard at $25. Constant mix and shared churn; no upgrades or separate cohorts are modeled.
| Metric | Month 12 | Month 24 |
|---|---|---|
| Closing paying customers | 919.28 | 1,416.02 |
| Revenue in the month | $22,271 | $35,016 |
| Operating profit in the month | $4,702 | $11,113 |
| MRR at month 24 Closing customers × weighted ARPU | $35,401 |
|---|---|
| ARR run rate at month 24 MRR × 12, not annual revenue | $424,807 |
| Revenue in year 2 Sum of months 13–24 | $357,838 |
Scale is a conditional planning scenario. Its $6,000 monthly fixed budget includes 1–2 people handling support and shared operating costs. Variable support at $0 means no separate per-user line, not free labor. The per-user infrastructure budget covers operating owned servers: electricity, maintenance and a replacement reserve, not rental. Server and support capacity has not been established; validate load and support hours before expanding, then revise staffing, capital spending and costs. A fixed workforce is not a claim of unlimited capacity.
Revenue and costs
Operating result
Cash balance
Initial funds of $30,000 and startup costs of $5,000.
Routing as a margin lever
Route routine work to cost-efficient Chinese models such as GLM; use a stronger model when quality or task complexity requires it. GLM is configured on the examined staging environment; DeepSeek is a compatible provider preset, not a claim of active availability. Routing savings remain a planning hypothesis until measured on completed tasks.
Base case: no routing saving assumed. The comparison uses the same revenue and all other costs.
Effective AI cost = (1 − share) × strong + share × (economy + fallback × strong) + other AI costs. Shares are fractions in this formula. The two model budgets cover the same monthly workload per average paying customer. Request share approximates workload share only when average token volumes and input/output mix are comparable. Otherwise use a token-weighted workload share.
Growth-target assumption: a full workload costs $6 on the strong route or $2 on the economy route; route 75% to the latter, with no extra fallback or other AI costs assumed. The effective budget is $3: $3 lower per customer, or 50% of the comparison budget. This explains the existing $3 assumption, not an additional discount. Enter measured tool, voice and embedding costs separately, and account for retries. Quality failures can erase the saving.
Additional margin opportunity: planned chain crystallization into pipelines can replace repeated model reasoning with reusable execution steps. Its savings are not included here. Validation must include build and maintenance costs, external APIs and the rate of exceptions that return to the agent.
24 months / full breakdown
Every number can be checked.
| Month | Opening customers | New customers | Closing customers | Revenue, $ | Variable costs, $ | Acquisition, $ | Fixed costs, $ | Profit, $ | Cash, $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 1,250.00 | 621.25 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | -5,871.25 | 19,128.75 |
| 2 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 195.00 | 3,687.50 | 1,832.69 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | -4,645.19 | 14,483.56 |
| 3 | 195.00 | 100.00 | 285.25 | 6,003.13 | 2,983.55 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | -3,480.43 | 11,003.13 |
| 4 | 285.25 | 100.00 | 370.99 | 8,202.97 | 4,076.88 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | -2,373.91 | 8,629.23 |
| 5 | 370.99 | 100.00 | 452.44 | 10,292.82 | 5,115.53 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | -1,322.71 | 7,306.52 |
| 6 | 452.44 | 100.00 | 529.82 | 12,278.18 | 6,102.26 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | -324.08 | 6,982.44 |
| 7 | 529.82 | 100.00 | 603.33 | 14,164.27 | 7,039.64 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 624.63 | 7,607.07 |
| 8 | 603.33 | 100.00 | 673.16 | 15,956.06 | 7,930.16 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 1,525.90 | 9,132.97 |
| 9 | 673.16 | 100.00 | 739.50 | 17,658.25 | 8,776.15 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 2,382.10 | 11,515.07 |
| 10 | 739.50 | 100.00 | 802.53 | 19,275.34 | 9,579.84 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 3,195.50 | 14,710.56 |
| 11 | 802.53 | 100.00 | 862.40 | 20,811.57 | 10,343.35 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 3,968.22 | 18,678.79 |
| 12 | 862.40 | 100.00 | 919.28 | 22,271.00 | 11,068.68 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 4,702.31 | 23,381.10 |
| 13 | 919.28 | 100.00 | 973.32 | 23,657.45 | 11,757.75 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 5,399.70 | 28,780.79 |
| 14 | 973.32 | 100.00 | 1,024.65 | 24,974.57 | 12,412.36 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 6,062.21 | 34,843.00 |
| 15 | 1,024.65 | 100.00 | 1,073.42 | 26,225.84 | 13,034.24 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 6,691.60 | 41,534.60 |
| 16 | 1,073.42 | 100.00 | 1,119.75 | 27,414.55 | 13,625.03 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 7,289.52 | 48,824.12 |
| 17 | 1,119.75 | 100.00 | 1,163.76 | 28,543.82 | 14,186.28 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 7,857.54 | 56,681.67 |
| 18 | 1,163.76 | 100.00 | 1,205.57 | 29,616.63 | 14,719.47 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 8,397.17 | 65,078.83 |
| 19 | 1,205.57 | 100.00 | 1,245.29 | 30,635.80 | 15,225.99 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 8,909.81 | 73,988.64 |
| 20 | 1,245.29 | 100.00 | 1,283.03 | 31,604.01 | 15,707.19 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 9,396.82 | 83,385.46 |
| 21 | 1,283.03 | 100.00 | 1,318.88 | 32,523.81 | 16,164.33 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 9,859.48 | 93,244.94 |
| 22 | 1,318.88 | 100.00 | 1,352.93 | 33,397.62 | 16,598.62 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 10,299.00 | 103,543.94 |
| 23 | 1,352.93 | 100.00 | 1,385.29 | 34,227.74 | 17,011.19 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 10,716.55 | 114,260.49 |
| 24 | 1,385.29 | 100.00 | 1,416.02 | 35,016.35 | 17,403.13 | 2,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 11,113.23 | 125,373.72 |
Behind the charts
Customers: closing customers = opening customers × (1 − churn) + new customers. Average paying customers = (opening + closing) / 2. Fractions represent expected values, not fractional people.
Revenue is average paying customers × monthly price. AI costs use the blended routing budget above; tools, voice and embeddings are separate. Usage-based extra revenue is not included.
Variable costs: average paying customers × ((AI + infrastructure + variable support) × weighted workload + fixed payment fee) + revenue × (payment fee % + refunds % + effective partner payouts %).
Profit: revenue − variable costs − new customers × CAC − fixed costs. Startup costs are deducted once before month 1. The funding requirement is the maximum cumulative shortfall, including this initial point. Additional funding is the requirement above the initial budget.
Payback: the first profitable month requires a strictly positive operating result. Investment payback means covering startup costs and all accumulated losses. CAC / contribution is a simple estimate excluding churn and fixed costs; it is not cohort LTV.
Limitations: the model assumes customers join and leave evenly, with monthly receipts and payments. Taxes, payment delays, annual subscriptions, borrowing and exchange-rate changes are excluded. A scenario that does not become profitable within 24 months may still do so beyond this horizon.
Base inputs: $25 is the test deployment setting as of October 1, 2026; all other figures are transparent planning assumptions. The fixed budget needs checking against actual team costs. Path to profitability and supporting evidence.
Tariff mix: ARPU = Standard price × (1 − Extended share) + Extended price × share. Weighted workload = 1 + share × (Extended workload multiplier − 1). Shares are fractions. The multiplier applies to AI including other AI costs, infrastructure and variable support. The fixed payment fee stays per customer; percentage fees apply to revenue.
Growth: new customers, CAC and fixed expenses in month t equal their month-1 values × (1 + their monthly growth rate)^(t − 1). Growth starts in month 2. One churn rate and a constant tariff mix apply to the whole customer base; tariff upgrades and separate retention are not modeled.
Revenue uses average paying customers during the month. MRR uses customers at the end of month 24; ARR is that MRR × 12. Year-2 revenue sums months 13–24. Run rates are not collected annual revenue.
Break-even and simple CAC payback diagnostics refer to month 1. Growing acquisition or fixed costs can change later profitability. Check month-12 and month-24 results and the full cash path before planning spending.